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The Factory Whisper
Predicting Consumer Inflation Three Months Ahead — From the Factory Gate to the Shelf
A regression model built on the Federal Reserve’s own price data (PPI Final Demand → CPI) that forecasts the consumer inflation number up to three months ahead — with every call graded in public the month the real number arrives. Tested across 444 monthly forecasts, 2014–2026: within a quarter-point of the actual print on roughly two of three one-month calls, fading to a coin flip by six months. The paper shows the method, the data, the honest limits, and the live scoreboard that keeps score.