Headline PCE (all items) vs Core PCE (ex food & energy) — the inflation measure that actually drives Fed rate decisions
🏛️ The Real Rate
Real Interest Rate (Fed Funds − CPI)
When this goes negative, inflation is eating your savings — and silver wins.
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Double-tap chart to enlarge · Double-tap card for plain-English explanation
💰 Liquidity Pulse
Financial Stress Index
St. Louis Fed STLFSI · higher = more stress
SOFR Repo Rate
Overnight cost of bank borrowing · spikes = liquidity crunch
Latest SOFR
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90-Day Avg
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What SOFR ShowsWhen SOFR spikes above its normal range, banks are scrambling for cash — a classic early warning of financial stress.
September 2019SOFR spiked to 10% overnight — the repo market froze until the Fed injected $500 billion.
Silver Liquidity Squeeze
COMEX registered vs. open interest · higher = tighter squeeze
Currencies & Geopolitical Signals
Gold/Silver Ratio
Current ratio vs. 100-year and long-history benchmarks
Current GSR
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100-Year Avg
~47:1
500-Year Avg
~15:1
Paper Contracts to Physical Silver
SLV silver ounces compared with registered deliverable COMEX silver
Paper to Actual Ratio
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Registered Box
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SLV Ounce Box
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COMEX Eligible Silver — 90-Day Tracker
Eligible silver meets COMEX standards but is not currently warranted for delivery; the line starts with today’s reading and builds daily
Eligible
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Available
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As Of
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Eligible vs RegisteredEligible is stored COMEX-standard silver; registered is the currently deliverable pile.
Tracking WindowThis records one daily point and keeps the latest 90 days.
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CFTC Bank Silver Futures — Long vs Short
Monthly Bank Participation Report for COMEX silver; grouped U.S. and non-U.S. banks, not individual bank names
Latest Banks
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Bank Net
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Open Interest
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Major Bank PressureCFTC reports bank positions monthly. The chart updates when a new official report is available.
Plain EnglishGreen shows bank longs; red shows bank shorts; purple shows net bank position. Shorter than zero means banks are net short.
USD to Chinese Yuan
USD/CNY exchange rate 90-day trend · rising means dollar strengthening vs. yuan
USD → CNY
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7-Day Change
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Why It MattersA stronger dollar vs. yuan means each dollar buys more yuan — cheaper Chinese goods for American buyers, but also signals capital flowing out of China.
Policy WatchChina manages the yuan within a band — big moves often mean policy intervention, not just market forces.
USD Index vs. Major Currencies
DXY (broad dollar strength) overlaid with USD/CNY (yuan) · dual-axis 90-day view
DXY
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USD/CNY
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Dual AxisLeft axis: DXY (dollar vs. basket of major currencies). Right axis: USD/CNY. Both rising means the dollar is broadly strong.
Divergence SignalWhen DXY rises but USD/CNY does not, China may be managing the yuan stronger than the market would set it.
Physical Silver Market
Shanghai Premium over COMEX
SGE silver price vs COMEX spot · how much more China pays per ounce · higher = tighter physical demand overseas
Premium
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SGE Price
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COMEX Price
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7-Day Δ
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30-Day Avg
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What It MeansWhen Shanghai silver costs more than COMEX silver, China and Asia are paying a premium for physical delivery. That signals tighter real-world demand — and it's bullish for silver.
Premium = Demand SignalA rising premium means overseas buyers are bidding up physical silver beyond the paper price. When the premium shrinks or flips negative, physical demand has softened.
Calculation(SGE price in USD/oz − COMEX spot) ÷ COMEX spot × 100. Data sourced daily from metalcharts.org.
COMEX Silver Open Interest Futures
Total outstanding silver futures contracts on COMEX · CFTC weekly data · builds daily
Open Interest
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Source
CFTC
What Open Interest MeansOpen interest counts every outstanding futures contract that has not been closed or delivered. It is the paper-claim total against the physical registered pile.
Rising Open Interest + Falling InventoryThat combination means more paper claims chasing less physical metal — a classic squeeze indicator.
COMEX Tot Silver Inventory
Registered + Eligible combined · the full physical pile backing COMEX silver contracts
Total Inventory
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Registered
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Eligible
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Registered + EligibleTotal inventory is the sum of deliverable (registered) and stored-but-not-warranted (eligible) silver in COMEX vaults.
Watch the TrendFalling total inventory while open interest is rising is a supply squeeze signal worth monitoring.
Silver Market Available Ounces — How Stacks Compare
Current available physical silver by market — log scale shows how stacks compare
NY COMEX
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London LBMA
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Shanghai SHFE
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Log ScaleLondon vaults are ~10× larger than COMEX registered. Log scale lets you see all three markets at a glance.
UnitsAll values are in millions of troy ounces. COMEX trend arrow shows 30-day direction.
Global Silver Mine Production
Top 8 Producing Countries, 2020–2024
Values in Million Ounces · Source: The Silver Institute
2024 Total
819.7M oz
YoY Change
−1.3%
vs 2022 Peak
−2.4%
Top 8 Share
71.0%
Country202020212022202320245yr Δ
🇲🇽 Mexico190.3196.5202.2202.1185.7−2.4%
🇨🇳 China101.4105.8110.2114.3114.0+12.4%
🇵🇪 Peru105.8103.6101.9101.896.5−8.8%
🇨🇱 Chile38.540.843.443.434.6−10.1%
🇧🇴 Bolivia32.333.237.239.542.1+30.3%
🇷🇺 Russia42.440.540.740.540.0−5.7%
🇵🇱 Poland38.739.539.540.339.2+1.3%
🇺🇸 USA32.533.236.535.433.6+3.4%
⚠ Mexico Down 8.1%World #1 producer fell from 202.2M → 185.7M oz in 2024 — first decline after four straight years of growth.
⚠ Chile Down 20.3%Largest single-year drop among the top 8: 43.4M → 34.6M oz in just one year.
📉 Post-Peak DeclineGlobal output peaked at 839.4M oz in 2022 and has fallen 2.4% since — even as industrial demand hits record highs.
📈 Bolivia +30.3%Strongest 5-year growth among top 8: 32.3M → 42.1M oz. Lead/zinc mine expansion driving gains.
⚡ Supply Squeeze BuildingPrimary silver mine output fell to a record low of 227.5M oz in 2024. Declining production + rising demand = structural deficit.
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